In a famous letter to the Rabbis of Montepelier on Astrology, the Rambam clearly states his belief about Providence. He disagrees with the philosophers that all is chance, and quotes the Torah and Talmud to show that the this world is one of Providence and Reward & Punishment:
...The Philosophers claim that everything that happens... is all due to chance... We assert that that what happens to a person is not chance but rather it is the result of G-d's Judgment... The Torah warned and gave testimony that if you don't obey G-d He will punish you (Vayikra 26:14). Therefor if you assert that this suffering is not punishment for sin but merely chance you will suffer additional calamities from this "chance". This is stated clearly in Vayikra (26:27-28): If you walk with me with chance then I will walk with you with the wrath of chance. This is the root of our religion which is the Torah of Moshe - that all events that happen in the world and all suffering that happens to a person is just a decree from G-d. Thus, our sages said that there is no death without sin and no suffering without transgression (Shabbos 55a).
(translation by D. Eidensohn)
The Rambam continues:
...Here is Reuben, a tanner, poor, and his children have died in his own lifetime. And here is Simon, a perfumer, rich, and his children stand before him.
The philosopher will maintain that this is due to chance. It is possible that Reuben could become a perfumer, grow rich, and have children; and it is possible that Simon could become impoverished, turn into a tanner, and witness his children's death. All this is simply fortuitous... This is the position of the philosophers....
The true way upon which we rely and in which we walk is this: We say regarding this Reuben and Simon, that there is nothing that draws on the one to become a perfumer and rich, and the other to become a tanner and poor. It is possible that the situation will change and be reversed, as the philosopher maintains. But the philosopher maintains that this is due to chance. We maintain that it is not due to chance, but rather that this situation depends on the will of "Him who spoke, and (the world) came into being" (Ps. 33:9); all of this is a (just) decree and judgment. We do not know the end of the Holy One's wisdom so as to know by what decree and judgment He required that this should be this way and that that should be the other way; "for His ways are not like our ways, neither are His thoughts like our thoughts" (Is. 55:8). We rather are obliged to fix in our minds that if Simon sins, he will be punished with stripes and impoverished and his children will die and the like. And if Reuben repents and mends his ways and searches his deeds and walks in a straight path, he will grow rich and will succeed in all his undertakings and "see (his) seed and prolong (his) days" (ibid. 55:10). This is a root of the religion. If a man says, "But look, many have acted in this way and yet have not succeeded," why this is no proof. Either some iniquity of theirs caused this, or they are now afflicted in order to inherit something even better than this.
(translation from here.)
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